November saw bullish movement. Driven by colder temperatures and concern over supply across Europe, putting gas at a premium, with power prices closely following. Prices settled at the end of the month with stronger wind generation and milder temperatures. Renewable generation has been supported by French and Norwegian interconnectors and LNG cargoes; renewables made up 47% of the energy mix on 29th Nov.
Power
Seasonal contracts for baseload power have registered gains throughout November as balances tightened. November saw REGO prices rise, trading at £4.05 for wind, solar and hydro for CP24. This comes after a long period of downward pressure in the market, where prices dropped 45% since August.
Gas
Gas reached the highest price of the year (122.72 p/therm) and saw LNG cargoes diverted to Europe from Asia, with eight due to arrive by early December.
Escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine was a key market driver. Prices spiked when Russia’s Gazprom halted gas supply to Austria’s OMV, after OMV won €230mn in arbitration against them.
There’s further pressure on Russia’s remaining gas supply, with the US Treasury imposing sanctions on Gazprombank. All Russian gas transit through Ukraine is currently set to cease on the 31st December.
Looking ahead
High withdrawals throughout November leaves UK and EU storage levels lower than this time last year. Tightening demand for replenishing storage in summer 2025. Geopolitical tensions continue to cause volatility, and supply is still sensitive to any unplanned outages or changes. Winter risk will continue to drive a premium and greater reliance on LNGs.
From all at The Greenspan Agency, we hope you have a wonderful Christmas and best wishes for the New Year.
The Greenspan Agency produce this report on a best endeavours basis, and it has been supplied for your interest; the facts in this report should not be relied upon for decision making. If you have any queries about the content in this report, please contact bureau@greenspanenergy.com
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